CBO On Obama Recession: Years To Recovery

Today, the Director of the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office, Douglas Elmendorf, on the CBO Director's blog, summarized his most recent testimony before Congress.

* While a "recovery" (read: the end of "negative growth") is expected in the second half of this year, unemployment will continue to spike and will stabilize this year in excess of 10%.

* Unemployment's return to pre-Obama levels will likely take "several years" (read: when The Messiah is no longer in office).

* "Even if the economy returns to positive growth this year, the loss in output and income during this downturn will be huge" (note: even if - doesn't sound like we can expect a return to positive growth this year).

* The difference between "actual" and "potential" output of the economy (read: lost production) will exceed $1 trillion both this year and next, and "CBO’s forecast in August is likely to show even larger shortfalls in output over the next few years" (read: the brakes have effectively been put on the economy).

* "The current recession and its aftermath will be the most severe economic downturn of the postwar period."

* "Most experts also believe that persistent large deficits reduce capital accumulation and thereby slow the growth of output and incomes over time. Thus, the large deficits that CBO projects for the years after the economy has returned to full employment are more worrisome" (read: while the CBO is giving a grudging pass to the current $1.7 trillion deficit, it is sounding the alarm that the party can't go on forever, and Obama's spending is going to have to stop).

*"The sharp increase in debt this year and next raises the risk that investors might lose confidence in U.S. government debt as a safe haven" (read: hyperinflation has already started, and we can't trust the collective mainstream media of other countries to keep it a secret like our own home-grown fourth estate is pleased to do).

Odd that the mainstream media hasn't really made any of these points since the Director's testimony was just yesterday. Perhaps CBS and CNN and MSNBC do not know that the CBO director has a blog...?

Rahm's Next Big Crisis

We have been treated to a litany of fake crises over the years by our Demofascist Leadership. Who can forget the images of Jimmy Carter in his argyle sweater ushering us through the 72-degree thermostat crisis, or the more recent bullying crisis, or whatever crisis it was to which Rahm Emanuel responded with this laugher: "You never want a serious crisis to go to waste. What I mean is it's an opportunity to do things you could not do before."

And who can argue with DemoRats' exceedingly fine responses to the various crises our nation has faced? From midnight basketball to the present administration's how-can-I-be-out-of-money-when-I-still-have-checks-left? concept of "fiscal responsibility," Democrats have shown themselves models of courage and competency for at least 30 years (coughcoughcough).

Of course, all of this posing over, and conjuring up of, fake crises seems to have desensitized Modern Progressives to real crises that may be looming on the horizon. Like, oh, say terrorism or Social Security.

In a recent blog entry on the Congressional Budget Director's official blog, the nonpartisan director informed the country that cost of living adjustments for 2010 seem unlikely for Social Security recipients (that will go over well at AARP, don't you think?) and that, based on current economic forecasts, the Social Security surplus will decline to a mere $3 billion in FY 2010.

Now, admittedly, $3 billion sounds like an adequate cushion if you are worried about your 16-year old's prom dress, car insurance, and summer camp.

But there are a couple of factoids that you ought to keep in mind about these projections.

1) The Social Security surplus dipped into the red in February of FY 2009.

2) The current projection of a $3 billion surplus assumes a moderate recovery consequent to Obama's "stimulizing" (I made that up - don't use it!) the economy.

3) That the Social Security Administration's coffers have already experienced an unexpected decline of $1.2 trillion, this figure is quoted by the CBO director himself, based on the recession that arguably started in mid-2008.

It doesn't take much to see that if you do not accept the Obamazombies' Rosy Scenario about the effect of the stimulus package, a similar dip of inflows into Social Security - in the trillions, not billions - is likely, just as happened in February.

Even under the Rosiest of Scenarios, the CBO director is forecasting a Social Security deficit in 2017 - potentially an Obama presidential year. And if The One continues to spend through his administration has he has done in the first 100 days, there will certainly be no hope of spending through that almost assured 2017 deficit in Social Security.

Of course, we hear nothing of this impending wreckage. After all, we have real crises of cyberbullying, sexting, global warming, and Obama Care to worry about.